Political Capital: Thompson outspends Bloomberg

Its kind of ironic- Bloomberg of NYC spends 100 million dollars of his own money-taking little or no money from outside interests. The media makes sure to point this out - But yet which is better ?- spending 100 million of your own money or spending 5-7 million of someone elses money- . No one seems to get the point. So even though Thompson spent much less money overall then Bloomberg - Thmopson spent other peoples money ( including yours- from matching funds) and could be influenced ( like almost all politicians) by that money -seems to me that Bloomberg’s scenrio works out better for all of us. Just think about the way it would be if all politicians would be Billionaires..

CIT. Canadians win- Taxpayers Lose

For some odd reason ( see “clueless guy” above) the government chose ( I say “chose” because I am pretty certain that in Dec 08 the government  had their choice of whatever deal they wanted) Preferred shares as opposed to notes.

They were very careful ( and I am sure they patted themselves on the back for this) to make sure that their shares were pari passu with or senior to all other series or classes of Preferred Stock,” ( quoting from the 8k in Dec 08 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1171825/000089882208001305/letteragreement1.htm)

So they did not even bother issuing notes which means that when bankruptcy occurred….the preferred got the following

Old Preferred Interests shall be cancelled, terminated and extinguished “

While Canadian unsecured note-holders received the following

“each holder of an Allowed Canadian Senior Unsecured Note Claim shall receive its pro rata share of Series B Notes, equal to a distribution in the amount of 100% of such holder’s Allowed Canadian Senior Unsecured Note Claim (which Allowed Claim constitutes principal plus accrued but unpaid prepetition interest), in full settlement and satisfaction of any Claims held by such holder of an Allowed Canadian Senior Unsecured Note Claim”

One more thing- about  the government’s  preferred - they finally got kicked off the table. Somewhere they never belonged- 

They did not even get a vote on the deal…. outclassed, outdealed and now finally out of  our money.

CIT Deal- Govt Clueless Guy on other side of the table…

Is is astounding beyond belief that the Taxpayers will lose their entire position in CIT. Have you ever been in a deal where you realized after one meeting that the other side of the table had no clue what they were doing and that this deal was going to be a slam dunk in your favor. Maybe it was a meeting with scientists who thought they were businessmen or with salespeople who thought they knew how to sell a deal. It has happened to most of us. Walking out of the room the feeling of “this guy really has no clue- how could have he even gotten to the table- the scientist  should be in the lab developing drugs or the salesmen selling products ” .. Well. The government should be running the essential government services and not be in the investment business. When that happens- when you do something in which you have no expertise you are like the clueless guy on the other side of the table.  CIT took the money, smiled, thought about the easy terms that the govt offered ( of course the govt thought it was getting a great deal , preferred, warrants they though they were “Uber smart-”) and about how in the world did the government ever get into the money lending business without a clue. CIT wins. Clueless guy loses.

Cash for Clunkers Affects Lower Income Used Car Buyers Most.

basically consumer gets paid to destroy fully usable cars - and buy a new one to replace it.   So how about destroying all TVs that were brought before 2009 and buying new ones .. OR maybe all computers built before June 2009. Are we crazy ? what are we doing here. Simple waste.  So consumer pays 10k for used volvo 3 years ago.  Still perfectly usable.  worth maybe $2000 in a trade in.  SO instead of trading in and keeping the car available for other used car buyers to buy at lets say $3000, we destroy the car. Down the line the net losers will be people who purchase lower priced used cars- namely the lower income groups. So who will buy cars for them ? easy answer : the government . what type of cars will the government buy the lower income drivers- take a guess ( starts with a G) -  Has anyone figured this out - this is nuts. 

Quick Note on Angel Investor Meeting

Tri state ventures has the ground running again. Two Really good companies ( we got alot of positive comments from the attendees on that) Really great crowd classic Angel meeting:  a roomful of investors. More Later. 

Its off to the races

Startup Success

Company Founders need to realize that the company can be succesful - but unless they play it right it does not mean that they will make money….See it all the time.. You need to know what you dont know. Most Don’t

Corporate Venture Capital

We hate to “toot” our own horn ( ok we don’t hate it) but as we uncannily predicted once again corporate venture capital activity has proven to be a fantastic indicator of the top of the market… The corporates entrance is a great signal of the top of the market…( one can ponder what kind of signal does the governement entrance into private equity signal: not sure, but almost certainly nothing positive for anyone but the politicians and their benefactors) It was the case with this last venture cycle… Ok. The question is : now what ? The answer is unclear, but one thing we do know… Opportunities abound in markets like this ( especially the private market…) ..From Early stage and up…. its a really good time to be investing in private companies ( For now publics are generally overvalued.) Its a strange world..

Legal Fees

Still dont see why we dont limit 800 dollars an hour legal fees… worse then CEO pay in some cases..

The Return Of The Bubble.

I feel very similar to when we predicted the perfect storm and previous market crash….The stock markets (unlike the bond market) have not digested the fact that there are real inflation fears…. and that the Obama plan has gone from creating to saving jobs… and that it will go from not working to likely being an economic disaster.. I am now going mostly cash in this market…I fear another major crash in the near term as reality sets in.

Risk is once again too high and believe it or not have a bubble once again… a bubble based on a media driven  complete lack of reality in regards to the President’s plan… the risk is too great.

Angel Group Meeting June 23

www.tristateventures.com